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Two weeks from Opening Day still and it can’t come fast
enough. This is the part of spring training that really starts to
drag. The position players are pretty much in shape and want to start
now, because many are hot and don’t want to cool off in the next two
weeks. The pitchers, on the other hand, need a little more time, and
that’s why we’re here for 7 weeks. So let’s take a look right now and
see how the pitching is shaping up in Yankee-land as we get ready for the
season to start.
It hasn’t been announced yet, but it’s a good bet Chien
Ming Wang is your Opening Day starter. A 19-game winner last year, he’s
clearly the ace of this staff and deserves the honor. After all, he did
start Game 1 of the Division Series last October, and would have started Game
5 if it had gotten that far. Wang is a solid choice. He’s
featuring his slider and splitter a little more often, hoping to put another
pitch into hitters’ heads than just that deadly sinker. If he mixes
them in well, his strikeout total may increase. But I spoke to a few
opposing hitters last year about Wang, and they all say that sinker is fine
all by itself. He throws it for strikes, so they have to swing at it,
and when they do it just gets beat into the ground. Bowling balls, shot
puts, all those analogies have been made about Wang and his amazing sinker.
Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina will line up next in the
rotation. Pettitte was pleased early this spring about his
changeup. As his arm strength builds, his cutter will become more
effective, and Pettitte will be Pettitte---the pitcher we all know and
remember. If he stays healthy, he could 15 or more games. Just remember,
it’ll be an adjustment going back to the American League. His career
ERA is about half a run lower in the NL.
Mussina has struggled a bit this
spring, and that’s normally not a concern. But he seems a bit
frustrated that he can’t locate his fastball or throw his breaking pitches
for strikes. Spring Training is a gradual process and for veterans
there is little point in worrying about results. Mussina himself
laughed off a disastrous outing against the Tigers last spring when he gave
up 10 runs and a succession of home runs, each one going further than the one
before it. Mussina struggled at the start of the 2005 season, but got
off to a great start last year. He’s got enough guile to figure out
what he still has in his holster, but don’t look for him to win 18
games. I’d peg him for something in the 13-15 neighborhood.
Here’s where it starts to get interesting. Carl
Pavano should be next. He’s looked okay in his previous two starts, but
it’s still a process with him too. It’s been 21 months since he’s
pitched in a major league game. Hard to know what to expect.
Being healthy is the biggest thing, just having him take the ball and
actually pitch. He doesn’t have to win a Cy Young. He just needs
to take his turn at least 30 times. Do that, and even pitching to a
4.50 ERA will be enough to win 12 games with this offense and Mariano Rivera
behind him.
Kei Igawa is the mystery here. He’s going to strike
some guys out, that much is clear. How many he walks will determine his
success. So far in 7 innings: 7 walks and 12 strikeouts. It’s
hard to decipher what Igawa is doing this spring. He’s a veteran
pitcher, just not in the US. He’s got a routine that made him a successful
pitcher in Japan, but there is an adjustment period that includes things
like living in the States to communicating with his catcher. The little
I’ve been around him over the last month, Igawa doesn’t appear to be the type
of guy who will be overwhelmed by the attention in New York. But it may take some time to figure out exactly
what Igawa is. They’re paying him a lot of money, so he’ll get the
opportunity to work though troubles if he has a few bad starts. Igawa
wasn’t projected to be more than a 4th or 5th starter,
so if he wins 12 games it will be a successful year.
Jeff Karstens could crack this group, but is more likely
looking at a role as long reliever. Joe Torre’s bullpen was chewed up
last year when the starters couldn’t go deep enough into games. It’ll
take a guy like Karstens to eat up some innings from time to time and take
pressure off other relievers who need the rest. Karstens has been
impressive, and though it’s dangerous to make assessments based on spring
training alone, he did have a few good outings at the major league level late
last year. As a long reliever, he could also be used as a spot starter
in case of a short-term injury to one of the other five.
That leaves 6 more spots in Joe Torre’s 12-man pitching
staff:
Mariano Rivera has a pretty good chance to make the
team. The best closer in history has made 5 scoreless appearances this
spring and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, even at 37 years of
age. His contract squabbles silenced for now, its business as usual for
Rivera. There was some buzz last week when Rivera started showing a
changeup. It’s not new actually. Stick Michael told me a long
time ago that when Rivera was a starting pitcher coming up through the system
his best pitch was his changeup. After becoming a short reliever and
developing that lethal cutter, there just wasn’t any need for that pitch
anymore. If he begins to lose a little something off his fastball and
needs to make an adjustment, the changeup is still in his back pocket and
that’s why he tinkers with it every spring training.
It gets scouts talking and gets hitters thinking. Roger Clemens used to
joke about a changeup, calling it his “Presidential” pitch, that he would
break it out when he needed 4 more years. Rivera may not need it, but
its there just in case.
Kyle Farnsworth will be the primary 8th inning
setup man. Farnsworth can’t be used back to back days and he can’t be
used for more than 3 outs. If the Yankees can handle that, he’ll be
effective. Watch out for his bad back that made him unavailable without
notice on 5 different occasions last year. Having to baby Farnsworth
through the year puts extra importance on getting another reliable reliever
in the pen. Enter stage right, Luis Vizcaino and Scott Proctor.
Vizcaino is a durable righty acquired in the Randy
Johnson deal. The Yankees hope he can do what Farnsworth can’t, that is
go back to back days or more than one inning. Proctor was driven into
the ground last year, and if Vizcaino is part of the equation it should help
lighten the load. The ideal is to be able to use any two of those
three, but never all three, in leading up to Rivera. That’s what made
the Mendoza-Nelson-Stanton combo so effective, that they rarely had to go to
all three and one of them was always rested.
The last two spots will go to lefties. Ron Villone
is in camp on a non-roster invite, but has been all but guaranteed of making
the team. He’s another guy who suffered from over-use last year.
Having an extra dependable reliever and a starting staff that can give you
more innings should be key in keeping these guys
fresher. Torre has remarked earlier this spring that Villone looks
better at this point of the spring than he did a year ago, and you can hear
in his voice that he regrets burning him out in the second half last
year. Villone has had poor second halves the last two seasons actually,
so it will be important to keep him fresh as well.
Mike Myers will be the lefty specialist. Lefties
actually had a better average against him last year than righties. He’s
one of these guys that simply have to do his job every time out. He
could not give up a hit for 9 straight appearances, but the 10th
time if he gives up a hit it’s likely in a crucial spot. That’s just
the way it goes. Myers will make his money in the AL East against guys
like David Ortiz, Lyle Overbay, Jay Gibbons, and Carl Crawford. If he doesn’t do
the job early in the year it would not be a surprise to see the Yankees move
him out and try Sean Henn, a starter turned reliever within the system.
Henn hasn’t shined in his brief major league stints and his numbers didn’t
look good in the Arizona Fall League. But Henn is a guy scouts have
watched closely. He’ll be 26 in April, and there are teams out there
that still feel like he can be a big league pitcher. The Yankees
refused to include him in the Shawn Chacon deal two years ago, and even if he
doesn’t make it to the big leagues with this team, he could be part of a deal
down the road.
That’s a look at your pitching staff as of March
16.
*It wasn’t the spring Phil Hughes hoped to have. His spring ERA in 3
outings was 7.71. Hughes knows he has work to do, especially with his
changeup. Remember, he’s still only 20. Even a full year at
Triple-A won’t be bad for him. It’s actually what the Yankees have in
mind.
*Joe Torre says that Bronson Sardinha has been his biggest
surprise in camp. Sardinha was a top Yankee prospect years ago, but
fell off most lists over the last few years. He’s turning heads again
with a huge spring, hitting .400 through March 15. Sardinha will probably be
in the starting outfield with Kevin Thompson and Kevin Reese at Triple-A
Scranton. He falls into the same category as those other two, as guys
who could come up and fill a role during the season if needed, although those
other two will be ahead of him on the call list. Both Thompson and
Reese are having good springs too.
*Alberto Gonzalez, the young shortstop the Yankees
acquired in the Randy Johnson deal, is a good enough fielder to be a major
league shortstop right now. That was the word from scouts I spoke to
when the trade was made, and that’s the word from inside Yankee camp after
they got a look at him this spring. Everyone says the same thing.
“Great hands.” He does tend to get a little flashy sometimes, which
leads to errors, much like Robinson Cano.
*The players aren’t the only ones dragging this time of
spring. Even if it is snowing back home, its time to get back to New York and get this thing started. Always one good time
to look forward to about the same time every year: the best party of
the spring thrown by my friends Andrew Levy, Tim O’Neill, and Bobby Cerullo
at Wish You Were Here Productions (wywhp.com). Always a fun time.
Check out their site. They set up many former Yankees for charity
events.
Thanks for checking in. And special thanks to all
the Yankee fans that have come through Florida the last few weeks and said hi. Send comments and
questions to Yankees@wfan.com.
Sweeny
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